Comments on: Estimation considered harmful

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By: On Estimation « Paul Dyson’s Blog

On Estimation « Paul Dyson’s Blog — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 16:49:50 +0000

[...] further on this subject. This seems to appeal to developers who find estimation difficult and teams that struggle with accuracy of estimation. Certainly there is a view that, because estimation is difficult, inaccurate, can lead to false [...]

By: Constant Change » Naked Planning Explained – Kanban in the Small

Constant Change » Naked Planning Explained – Kanban in the Small — Sat, 01 May 2010 00:08:17 +0000

[...] There are a few different references on the matter, including Dave Anderson, Mary Poppendieck, or Amit Rathore. Even NetObjectives weighs in with a course [...]

By: Alan Atlas

Alan Atlas — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 03:15:34 +0000

Awesome article! I just found this and coincidentally just wrote a much shorter article for the Scrum Alliance website that is in total agreement. I have also noticed the connection with the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. Thanks for that part of the discussion.

By: Slade Stewart

Slade Stewart — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 00:51:03 +0000

Great post. It’s really good to see hard questioning around the idea of ‘why we’re so keen on estimating’ in the industry, even if I don’t completely agree (I suspect overall neither do you, completely) with the premise that ‘all estimating is evil and unnecessary’. Some semi-random thoughts around that area (that, taken as a whole and thematically, might strike **someone** as a cogent and cohesive reply post – who knows?)
– ‘The need for accurate estimates’ is one of those deeply-grained assumptions that no-one ever seems to question. People can give textbook answers as to why, but when you compare reality to the theoretical reasons, they don’t jibe
– One answer to ‘why we need estimates’ (an answer implicit in the literature of ‘old-school’ software development as well as agile) is ‘to help the business plan’ (timing, budget, etc.). However, in my experience, time and again, both in internal IT shops and ‘external product development shops’, it begins with the pretending that we can estimate things accurately, and then when the dates aren’t hit, what adjustment is made? just ‘get it done as quickly now as possible’. No ‘we’ll drop this feature’ or ‘if we exceed the budget by this much the project isn’t worthwhile’ or any of that stuff touted in the older textbooks or the new Agile textbooks. Just ‘get it done as quickly now as possible’. You alluded to this in your post (i.e., ‘what is necessary will get done when it gets done, and we just have to live with that’). If the decisions were really being made based on accuracy of the estimates, I would expect to see some changes when the estimates change (in more Agile / RAD / whatever shops, the changed estimates are earlier. In more traditional shops, the changed estimates are often 11th-hour. But in any case, in my experience the result is usually the same – ‘just get it done as fast as you can’)
– I’ll go ahead and say it: deep down, most managers, business sponsors, product owners, all those types, cling to ‘accurate estimates’ for one main reason: they have a voice of dread that tells them they don’t have any control over a software development project (who does, when it comes right down to it?), and insisting on ‘sticking to estimates’ is their ritual, their talisman, that gives them the illusion of control and is the only thing that can quiet that voice
– I think the reason a lot of Agile books don’t just come out and say these things outright is because then the people who need to buy off on Agile would not buy off on it. I can understand this – in my opinion, Agile is overall a Good Thing, and why encourage ‘throwing the baby out with the bathwater’?

By: Len Whitmore

Len Whitmore — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:18:05 +0000

Amit,

Let me firstr say, I am sorry that I did not read this blog shortly after it was written as I expect my comments to have few reviews.

That said, I have been involved someway in developing software for over 20 years, mostly at what is considered the programming or development level.

I have read your blog about not needing iterations, as well as, estimating as evil. Since most people are passionate about their position on the Agile Philsophy I have usually not commented.

However, this blog in my view is leading, at least those that practice the Scrum method, down the “garden path”, well at least the wrong path.

So while this blog, and having read some of your other articles are well written, there are several things that are of concern.

First it seems, you misunderstand estimating and planning. The estimating is done in this project when you are assigning story points and trying to figure the size of the project.The meeting before each sprint is not named the re-estimation meeting, but the planning meeting. Of course you could be using the word re-estimating just in suppport of your point. In which case, it weakens the argument, since its use is incorrect.

Another point you talk about in the so called re-estimation is using real tine. In our Scrum practice we use real time all the time, so I could ask if you want to stop estimating then what good are story points, but I digress.

Your blog pointed out that you still ask the developers to break the stories down into tasks, when they do this, isn’t it planning, and from my expeience with our team the time they say it takes for a task is pretty accurate, unless some impediment happens.

If after this planning meeting for the tasks to be completed for the sprint, the developers do as you put “All that stuff changes the minute someone writes the first bunch of code” then something is very wrong. As the old adge says “when you fail to plan, you plan to fail.”

Of course you say there is still planning and call it evloutionary desgin. In the need for this part I am in agreement with you.

Now for communication sake, let’s spend amoment considering the busines side stakeholders. Since your blog had little in consideration of thhese folks. Given that all that stuff changes how do they know what is going on? I’ll bet the team will spend more than that 10% that you say is wasted trying to inform the business side what is going on. Oh yes, you will be causing more work and lost time for them too, as they have to make more adjustments. I’m sure they will thank you for that. It all works together.

Since you have taken the approach to be a bit inflamatory, which I must admit was quite succesful, I am firing back with some of my own.

It seem like you and Mary P (who I consider a great writer) along with others just don’t get it. You want to start talking about “lean” from manufacturing or construction techniques.

Im my view even the great Hopkins, founder of much of CMMI. doesn’t get it.

My view comes form a place where I worked where we carefully evalutaed CMMI and ISO 9002 for over a year to see which would be better suited..

CMMI and lean are to much like manufacturing physical (hardware) things. So enough already, creating Software is more like wrting a report or developing a proposal. Business people have no problem doing a draft and then re-working whaterver it is a number of times.

I think it would behoove us all to try and find ways to make “Software” faster to develop, higher quality, like the though leaders Stherland, Schwaber, and Cohn have done.

Len Whitmore, BA

By: 30 Second Estimating - Wayne Allen's Weblog

30 Second Estimating - Wayne Allen's Weblog — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 20:13:26 +0000

[...] reading posts by David Anderson and Amit Rathore I started to examine why we were estimating, how much time we were spending at it, the psychic [...]